Introduction

Canada’s population experienced a notable decline between July and October 2025, marking a significant shift driven primarily by government-imposed limits on immigration. According to Statistics Canada, the country’s population decreased by 76,068 during this period. This contraction is largely attributed to a reduction in the number of non-permanent residents, aligning with Ottawa’s objective to cap temporary residents at 5% of the total population (41.6 million) by 2027.

The Shift from Rapid Growth

This recent decline contrasts sharply with the population boom experienced in 2022, when Canada’s population grew by over a million people. This growth was largely fueled by initiatives to attract immigrants to address pressing labor shortages across various sectors.

Government Rationale

Canada’s Finance Minister, François-Philippe Champagne, addressed the situation, stating the government’s aim to bring immigration levels to a more sustainable level. Speaking from Berlin, Champagne emphasized the goal of regaining control over the immigration system and achieving a better balance between the country’s capacity to welcome newcomers and the number of individuals seeking to immigrate to Canada.

Economic Implications and Expert Analysis

The population drop has raised eyebrows among economists. Robert Kavcic, a senior economist at the Bank of Montreal, described the decline as the “sharpest, and only second, quarter-over-quarter decline on record dating back to the 1940s.” Kavcic emphasized that this major population adjustment is a significant economic story for Canada.

Historical Context: Trudeau’s Immigration Policies

Former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau had actively pursued policies to attract more immigrants, including a plan to welcome half a million immigrants annually by 2025. By 2023, immigration accounted for approximately 97% of Canada’s population growth, according to federal data.

Concerns and Policy Adjustments

However, the surge in newcomers was also linked to increased pressure on housing costs, strains on social services, and rising youth unemployment rates. In response, Trudeau announced a significant reduction in the number of immigrants allowed into Canada, acknowledging that the government “didn’t get the balance quite right” when it initially boosted immigration to address post-pandemic labor shortages.

Current Government’s Stance

Prime Minister Mark Carney has continued this policy direction, with the government aiming to substantially reduce targets for new temporary residents from 673,650 to 385,000 next year, and further to 370,000 in 2027 and 2028.

Statistical Breakdown

Statistics Canada’s preliminary data indicates a 0.2% population decrease in the third quarter of 2025, marking the first decline since the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. This decrease was primarily driven by a reduction in non-permanent residents, including international students and temporary foreign workers, representing the largest drop since comparable records began in 1971.

Non-Permanent Residents

As of October 2025, there were over 2.8 million non-permanent residents in Canada, accounting for approximately 6.8% of the total population.

Regional Impact

The provinces of Ontario and British Columbia experienced the most significant population declines, while Alberta and the territory of Nunavut saw population growth.

Key Statistics

• Population Drop: 76,068 between July and October 2025
• Target for Temporary Residents: 5% of the total population by 2027
• Population Growth in 2022: Over 1 million
• Immigration Contribution in 2023: 97% of population growth
• Target for Temporary Residents Next Year: 385,000
• Population Decrease in Q3 2025: 0.2%

FAQ

Why is Canada limiting immigration?

The Canadian government aims to achieve a more sustainable level of immigration, balancing the country’s capacity to welcome newcomers with the number of people seeking to immigrate. Concerns over housing costs, social services, and youth unemployment also contributed to the decision.

What is the target for temporary residents?

The government aims to cap temporary residents at 5% of the total population by 2027.

Which provinces experienced the largest population declines?

Ontario and British Columbia experienced the most significant population declines.

Conclusion

Canada’s recent population decline, driven by immigration caps, marks a significant policy shift with potential economic and social implications. The government’s efforts to balance immigration levels with the country’s capacity to accommodate newcomers will continue to shape Canada’s demographic landscape in the coming years. The long-term effects of these policies remain to be seen, but they undoubtedly represent a major adjustment in Canada’s approach to population growth and immigration.